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October 13, 2009

Is Santa Coming to Town?

Last week was filled with forecasts for the upcoming holiday sales season. The National Retail Federation's chief economist, Rosalind Wells, said that holiday sales would drop one percent this year, and "Americans will focus primarily on practical gifts and shop on a budget this holiday season. Here in Canada, "Marketing Magazine's cover story--There Goes Santa Claus--looks at whether the "post-recession shift to thrift [will] result in widespread Christmas trimming." Written by freelancer Michelle Warren, it includes interviews with a range of retail and advertising experts, who conclude that "if retailers hit the right note in terms of festive value-driven propositions they should get what they want for Christmas [sales], though it won't be as bountiful as the consumer-crazed Christmases of the past."

Last year at this time, I put up a poll question asking what your guts were telling you about the upcoming Golden Quarter. Only 25 percent thought the season would be better than 2007; 16.67 percent thought it would be the same; and 58.33 percent of respondents thought it would be worse than the previous year. In January, I put up a poll question asking how your holiday '08 sales really were. In response to that question, 36.36 percent said sales were better than expected; 31.82 percent said they were as expected; and 31.82 percent said sales were worse than expected.

The Marketing article points out that this season the overall picture is brighter: last year the stock markets were in freefall and the pundits were talking not only about recession but about a possible global Depression. This year the economy is in recovery, job numbers are slowly going up, and in most of the country housing prices have remained stable. But does all that add up to consumers being in a spending mood?

What do you think the season will bring this year? Will Santa be coming to your store? Here's a new poll question for you:


Posted by Lori Smith on October 13, 2009 4:34 PM | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

October 19, 2009

Dollar Dilemma Déjà vu: Will 4Q 2009 be a repeat of 4Q 2007?

I wrote the first entry on this blog roughly two years ago. It was November 6, 2007 and media and politicians of all stripes were pillorying retailers, claiming that the soaring Loonie should mean lower prices in Canada and that consumers were being ripped off. So, here we are two years later and the Loonie is once again climbing to new heights. Will 2009 be a repeat of 2007?

This morning the Loonie stands at 96.55 cents US on its trip up the currency value scale. Not surprisingly, there have been numerous news reports on the subject of cross border shopping. But so far coverage of the issue in the media has been restrained (at least compared to November 6, 2007). For example, the Monday, October 19th issue of The Globe and Mail has two articles on the issue: Is the Canadian dollar overvalued? by Tavia Grant and How to score a cross-border deal with the high dollar by Dakshana Bascaramurty.

The comments attached to the latter article are particularly interesting. Naturally, there are those people who accuse Canadian retailers of price gouging and those who seem mystified about why an article that costs X in the US, costs X++ in Canada. However, there are also comments explaining the economic reasons for higher Canadian prices: economies of scale, duties, tariffs, etc. There is also some discussion on the wisdom of shopping local.

If the dollar continues its ascent, it will be interesting to see if the anti-retailer rhetoric ratchets up as we draw closer to the holiday gift giving season. Will reasoned discussion prevail or will we experience dollar dilemma déjà vu?

Posted by Lori Smith on October 19, 2009 10:07 AM | | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

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Lori Smith, , Editor-in-Chief
Lori Smith is the editor of Gifts and Tablewares, Canada's premiere gifts and tablewares magazine. Written for retailers of gifts, tablewares, housewares, stationery and home furnishing accessories, its objective is to help readers increase their sales and run their businesses more profitably by providing information on new products, merchandising, small business management, customer service, consumer behavior and industry news. The magazine is published six times a year by BIG Magazines, LP, a leading Canadian information company.

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About October 2009

This page contains all entries posted to Editorial Blog in October 2009. They are listed from oldest to newest.

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