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Trends Tipped Over?

The February 2008 edition of Fast Company features an article that presents a rebuttal to Malcolm Gladwell's" best-seller, The Tipping Point.

In Is the Tipping Point Toast?" writer Clive Thompson explores the work of Duncan Watts, a network-theory scientist, who conducted "a series of controversial, barn-burning experiments challenging the whole Influentials thesis."

Watts' experiments disprove Gladwell's assertion that a group of "Super Influentials" are "the spark behind any successful trend." In fact, Watts' work shows that any average Joe or Jill can spark a trend if the conditions are right. Thompson explains Watts' theory of "Accidental Influentials":

Watts's theory says the emergence of a trend depends not on Influentials, but on the susceptibility of the public to the "virus." Social-network effects are so complex, he says, that trends are basically random.

This pitting of "viral marketing" against old-fashioned mass marketing is fascinating. Read it if you have the chance.

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